Odisha may see 11,000 Covid deaths by January 1: US centre

BHUBANESWAR: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), a population health research centre at the University of Washington, has projected that Odisha may see more than 11,000 deaths due to Covid-19 by January 1, 2021.
The projection, which was done on the basis of the current scenario, says the state may see more than 400 deaths daily in January next year. This will reduce significantly — to about 143 deaths a day — if wearing of masks becomes universal, the projection says. In this case, the total Covid deaths in the state by the new year will be around 4,170, it adds.
The IHME says the number of new infections daily may rise to between 1.68 lakh to 3.92 lakh, from the current around 5,000 per day (including undetected infections). The state may need 8,144 ICU beds, including 7,162 ventilators, up from the 1,000-odd now.
The projected figures may seem alarming but is better than those predicted for Odisha’s neighbouring states. The IHME said deaths may be 12,958 in Jharkhand, 17,840 in Chhattisgarh, 33,520 in Andhra Pradesh and 54,852 in West Bengal. While Maharashtra may witness 99,468 deaths by then, the toll could go up to 15,752 in Gujarat, 14,058 in Delhi and 16,948 in Assam. The IHME has predicted India may see up to 6.46 lakh Covid deaths by January 1, 2021.
Government authorities said predictions should not lead to either alarm or complacency. “We are making our own assessment, taking experts’ inputs. Our own predictions have been fairly accurate,” said additional chief secretary (health) Pradipta Kumar Mohapatra. “There are several predictions based on various models. Let’s take them with a pinch of salt. These are good reading material but may not be true,” he said.
Mohapatra said the government anticipates around 2.14 lakh Covid infections by the month-end. “Our focus is to ensure hospital beds and ICUs for all patients as per need,” he said.
Ashok Mahapatra, vice-chancellor of SOA University and former director of AIIMS Bhubaneswar, who is a neurosurgeon, said the predictions can’t be dismissed entirely.
We will study projection: Govt
Such projections may or may not turn out to be true, given that the virus has been behaving very differently in different parts of the world. Even within Odisha, the virus behaviour is different from district to district. In Ganjam, it spread quickly, caused more deaths but started declining very fast. In Khurda, the spread is slow, so is the decline. But, there no room for complacency,” he said.
Mohapatra said the IHME observation that wearing masks could reduce deaths by more 50% should be taken seriously.
“We all know the uncertainty will persist till there is an effective vaccine or cure. We also know masks and social distancing will help prevent the virus spread. We all should wear masks and maintain social distancing,” he said. With 4,180 more testing positive for Covid-19, the virus case load in the state rose to 28,224 on Friday. Thirteen more succumbed to the infection, raising the death toll in state to 682.
The state added 28,224 new cases in the past seven days with an average of 4,032 new infections every 24 hours. Khurda (688), followed by Cuttack (492), continues to lead districts in new positive cases. Total cases in Khurda rose to 29,482 while those in Cuttack went up to 14,994. Eleven other districts reported 100 or more cases each: Jajpur (184), Puri and Sundargarh (166 each), Rayagada (160), Angul (155), Mayurbhanj (163), Balasore (133), Sambalpur (127), Jagatsinghpur (123), Kendrapada (121) and Bargarh (100).
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